🔗 Share this article

It was two months in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the reason of the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

It remains a rather hard query to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have stacked up.

Per Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and again against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker could start scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.